To simulate the flow direction of freight in crossing hinterland and forecast throughput of some newly built ports, probability model for transportation means is introduced and revised, and negative exponent probability model is established based on it.

• 摘要为了模拟港口重叠腹地货运流向情况，并对新建港口吞吐量进行合理预测，引入了概率交通方式预测模型并对其进行改进，且在此基础上建立了负指数货运量概率预测模型。