To evaluate the defense effectiveness of a radar site with decoys against the attack of ARM, a calculation method based on the transfer probability matrix of the Markov link is given.

• 摘要为了评定一个布置有诱饵的雷达阵地抗反辐射导弹(ARM)攻击的防御效能，提出了采用马尔可夫链的转移概率矩阵进行计算的方法。