Tip : To avoid the post hoc fallacy, the arguer would need to give us some explanation of the process by which the tax increase is supposed to have produced higher crime rates.

• 技巧：检查事情是否真是象你说的那样，只有二选一的可能，或者还有其它你没有提到的选择？如果还有其它可能，不要忽略它，说明为什么必须排除它。