The probability of concrete structure cracking at early age is estimated by cracking probability and critical cracking risk with probabilistic method for a real case of concrete wall.

• 利用概率的方法,确定开裂概率和临界开裂风险来评价混凝土结构的早龄期开裂的可能性大小,并在混凝土挡土墙工程中应用。