The net effect of exchange rate depreciation and its risk on exports in Taiwan between 1979 and 2001 is investigated in a bivariate GARCH-M model that stimultaneously estimates time varying risk.

• 摘要:本文建立双变量GARCH-M模型，使用1979至2001年的月资料，联立估计汇率贬值及其随时间变动汇率风险对台湾出口贸易的影响，并据以评估汇率贬值刺激出口的效果。