The happening of debris flow is a complicated problem, and it is the outcome of polysynthesism coaction, this brought difficulty to analytical prediction of development trend of debris flow.

• 摘要泥石流的发生与否是一个极其复杂的问题，而且是由多种因素共同作用的结果，这也给泥石流活动发展趋势的分析预测带来了困难。