The correlation coefficients in Nino 3 region were near 0 8 at a lead time of about one and half years in 1980s, while it reduced to about 0 4 after a half year in advance in 1990s.

• 结果表明 :该预测系统对 80年代的ENSO具有较强的预报能力 ,在Nino 3区接近 0 8预报相关技巧 (预报与观测的相关系数 )可达到 1年半左右 ,而对 90年代的ENSO现象 ,预报技巧则较低 ,超前半年以上的预报仅在 0 4左右 ;