The core concepts of this thesis are: 1. the Logit/Probit method with single indicator set can hardly utilize the currency crisis theory under blackbox concept;

• 本文的核心观点是：1、黑箱思路下使用单一预警指标集的Logit/Probit法等方法难以有效利用货币危机理论，导致货币危机预警实践陷入困境；