The author picked good methods for production prediction of one calendar year, Arps decline method, water drive curve, AR model, etc. The precondition is listed settling a base for the important index prediction.

• 本文评价筛选出了年产油量预测的较好方法,主要有 Arps 递减法、水驱曲线(定液求产)法、AR 模型等预测方法,并指出了各种方法的适用条件,对准确合理地预测年产油量这一重要指标奠定了基础。