Objective This article introduces Bayesian graphical modelling and analyze incidence data of primary live cancer in Qidong county,and predict incidence rate of Primary live cancer next period.

• 目的为了较为系统地介绍贝叶斯图解模型,并用于肝癌发病资料分析和发病率预测。方法利用贝叶斯图解模型和年龄队列模型对肝癌发病的年龄、出生队列效应的参数进行估计。