In this paper, the goodness of fit of time series analysis and forecasting model is good, so it can be used to analyze the regularity of disease or death dynamic variation and forecast its future development trend.

• 本文运用的时序分析和预测模型拟合效果较好,可推广应用于疾病发病或死亡动态变化规律的分析和其未来发展趋势的预测、预报。