By using these strong signals as factor field and basing on the variance weighing, the physical statistic model to predict the rainfall of Sichuan-Chongqing region in main flood season is developed.

• 利用这些强信号作因子场,在引入“方差权重”思想的基础上,建立了预测川渝地区主汛期降水的一种物理统计模型。