According to analyzing the shortcoming of the estimation of circler error probability (CEP) of multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles (MITRV), this paper put forward a new method that is adapt to actual situation.

• 针对目前使用的多头分导式子弹头圆概率误差估算方法比较粗略的缺点；对多头分导式子弹头飞行特点进行了分析；并按照分析结果；提出了一种新的CEP估算方法.